Amid a wave of defections to the All Progressives Congress (APC), former Senator Shehu Sani has said President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is on track to win a second term in 2027—unless Nigeria’s opposition parties urgently form a coalition.
Addressing journalists in Abuja on Thursday, Sani said internal conflicts within opposition parties are paving the way for another APC victory.
“There is no way you can evict a ruling party without a coalition,” Sani said. “Opposition parties must put aside personal ambition and narrow interests for the sake of democracy.”
No interest in coalition from major parties
Sani noted that key opposition parties are not showing willingness to unite. According to him, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party, and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) have all distanced themselves from coalition efforts.
“If they go into the election without any alliance or merger, there is no doubt APC will win by a landslide,” he warned.
“They lost in 2023 due to lack of unity and could face the same fate again.”
Weak party ideologies enable defections
The former lawmaker, who once represented Kaduna Central in the Senate, also criticized the ideological emptiness of political parties in Nigeria.
He said this has made it easy for politicians to switch parties without consequence.
“Parties are simply vehicles for personal ambition. Their manifestos are practically the same, and the only difference is in their names,” he said.
Sani argued that defections are not Tinubu’s responsibility to prevent.
“It is not the duty of the president to protect opposition parties. They must do the work of keeping their members united and committed.”
PDP’s leadership crisis may fuel more defections
Sani warned that more defections are likely, particularly from the PDP, due to unresolved leadership crises and court rulings that have created uncertainty within the party.
“The Supreme Court gave a judgment, but it didn’t resolve the leadership tussle. Now, when the time for primaries comes, there could be multiple factions each laying claim to legitimacy,” he said.
He added that this instability makes it difficult for PDP politicians to plan their futures.
“A first-time PDP governor or senator cannot be sure of getting a ticket for re-election under such conditions.”
Sani said Nigeria risks sliding into a de facto one-party state—not because of any legal change, but because the opposition is failing to organize itself.
“In a one-party state, the law mandates it. But here, it’s the opposition pushing members out with unresolved crises. If this continues, APC’s dominance will only grow stronger.”
